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Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
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The partnership also plans to analyse operational data, develop pilot programmes and construct a model for national deployment.
A systemic policy cooperation mechanism is expected, targeting youth gambling prevention and student safeguarding. Rather than implementing short-term campaigns, the focus will be on embedding gambling prevention into everyday school routines.
It will include combining restrictions on smartphone use with engaging RAS activities to effectively block and fill the time students might otherwise spend being exposed to gambling content.
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A recent study revealed that VIP account managers in the online gambling industry predominantly depend on spreadsheets and manual decision-making tools rather than specialised automation or AI systems.
This reliance places many high-value players at risk of “silent churn”, where VIP players become inactive without warning, posing a significant challenge for operators.
The report, titled The State of VIP Operations, was compiled by The Playa in collaboration with Gaming Operations Academy and WarriorLab.
