Samurai Fury

How to play Samurai Fury

In fact, behind those brands, a whole new sector is taking shape. Data and streaming suppliers, specialist market makers and technology companies are quickly invading the space.

The investment banking and capital markets firm Jefferies said in a September report that sports had become prediction markets’ “most important liquidity driver”, with combo and parlay-style contracts accounting for an increasing share of activity. But the analysts cautioned that prediction markets are scale businesses with relatively low revenue yields, leaving their economics dependent on sustained liquidity, engagement and trading activity.

James Monk, founder of sports data and streaming provider Catalist Sports, has witnessed that dependence directly. Catalist supplies ITF tennis data to Kalshi and Polymarket and has an exclusive US sports-streaming agreement with Kalshi.

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“Prediction markets represent a meaningful second channel for NFL wagering but still small on a relative scale, reflecting a new sector with less of an installed base,” observes EKG.

It’s widely believed that all-or-nothing exchanges are carving out significant niches in states, such as California and Texas, where sports betting is prohibited, but there’s also emerging consensus that the prediction market threat to sportsbooks is easing.

A major advantage for traditional sportsbook operators is their ability to aggressively fund customer acquisition and retention bonuses. As EKG points out, prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because users trade against one another rather than against the house.

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As has been flagged in previous reports, Regulus highlighted that the top 1% of active customers accounts for almost 50% of black market revenue across Europe. This follows a similar trend across licensed gambling as the report highlights “online gambling is a consumer discretionary expenditure item. This means a large proportion of expenditure is concentrated into a relatively small number of players.”

In its market-specific breakdown, the report noted a “rapid reduction in channelling” in the UK, following the increased use of affordability checks.

The remote gaming duty hike from 21% to 40% in April is also expected to have a significant impact on the black market, with Regulus estimating it could drive the market to be worth up to €1 billion, as consumers choose illegal offerings to access unrestricted bonuses.