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Now, with Japan promising to open two more IR licences in 2027, ambitious bidders are craning their necks for a leg up over the competition. But Japan has telegraphed mixed messaging on the casino industry.
Depsite it having liberalised gambling in pursuit of the economic benefits that casinos can bring, its regulatory architecture and deeply ingrained social attitudes are not particuarly pro gambling.
The regulatory framework strictly keeps the casino component in check. Casino floor space is capped at 3% of the total floor area of the IR, while Japanese residents are restricted to three visits per week and 10 visits within any 28-day period. Each visit also carries a mandatory ¥6,000 entry fee, reinforcing the government’s intent to curb excessive gambling even as it opens the door to casinos.
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The order was short-lived. The commercial court of appeal granted a stay on 26 January. According to Medias24’s 12 February report, it then annulled the order and rejected MDJS’ claim, ending the daily penalty. MDJS could still appeal.
The court action came as MDJS was warning of the financial impact of offshore betting. Director General Younes El Mechrafi told a parliamentary sport forum in December that illegal sports betting stakes reached about MAD3.5 billion in 2024. He put the cost to the state at some MAD700 million, split between the national sports development fund and the Treasury.
Meanwhile, Tunisian gambling law rests on Decree-Law 74-20 of October 1974. The only lawful sports betting channel is the state company Promosport. Pari-mutuel horse race betting is managed by the Agence Tunisienne de Solidarité.
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Commercial sports betting generated just under $17 billion in nationwide revenue in 2025, which is why Davenport asserts that the “stakes of this case are exceptionally high”. Kalshi and Polymarket alone posted more than $45 billion in trading volume, which is similar but not identical to betting revenue, in August. That was a 15% decline from July, although that drop is attributed to the conclusion of the Fifa World Cup tournament that month per Yahoo! Finance.
The American Gaming Association estimates that the exchanges have siphoned more than $1.3 billion in would-be tax revenue from states. One of the AGA’s primary spokespeople pin its fight against prediction markets is former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, who championed the PASPA case to the Supreme Court.
As with PASPA, this matter revolves heavily around federalism versus states’ rights. Traditional sports betting is governed by individual state regulators with varying laws and regulations. Federal derivatives are regulated by the CFTC, which has fully embraced prediction markets under US President Donald Trump after rejecting them in previous administrations.
